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Pastimes : Home on the range where the buffalo roam

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To: Sig who wrote (8557)	8/2/2002 11:23:56 PM
From: pbull	Read Replies (2) of 13815

Current thinking from here: It really is going to be like the '73-'74 market. We're going to invade Iraq. That's a given. The reaction from other countries in the Middle East will be to cut oil production (oil is trending nicely higher here, just went above $25). We all know stocks are still too high based on historic valuations. So there's a war in the Middle East, oil prices spike, and the economy really goes over the side. Bush will say this is why we need the big oil pipeline, that he was right all along, and Congress will have little choice but to approve it. This weekend, I will be looking at the oil drillers. Not SLB, but the more leveraged guys. WMB has a lot of debt, and this is just the thing that could keep them from filing BK. Take a look at the volume in HAL. I don't know the best way to play it, I'm just pretty convinced about how this segment goes. Thoughts? PB

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