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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace

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To: AllansAlias who wrote (48884)	8/3/2002 12:08:29 PM
From: MythMan	Read Replies (1) of 209892

In the interest of balanced reporting... >>It's worth noting, too, that the model's predictive power seems to break down almost completely under back testing in the years before 1982, which was the start of the 18-year bull market. This raises the prospect that it is a framework best suited for a discrete period of time, when interest rates were steadily declining and P/E multiples progressively ascending, in self-reinforcing symbiosis. Bryan Taylor of Global Financial Data, suggests that the Fed Model may end up like the statistical muses of investors in prior decades, such as "the Barron's Confidence Index in the 1950s and Tobin's Q in the 1960s," which worked well up to around the point they attained prominence.<<

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