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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA
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To: Steve Lee who wrote (14036)8/3/2002 4:49:21 PM
From: Killswitch  Read Replies (1) of 19219
 
Steve, my data shows a recent high in Nova/Ursa ratio on July 30, but it was a bit higher on July 5. This recent high was 5 days after the market low. If we look back at what happened back in Sept (you claim now is differing from then), the Rydex Nova/Ursa had a low on 9/21, and 5 days after that it also was quite higher (in fact that also was a local short term high). After that the market did not collapse, it went higher and this particular Rydex ratio bounced around in a narrow range for 5 weeks or so.

If you look at the data from the past couple weeks you can see that the reason for the ratio high was a lot of people bailing out of Ursa. Whether we rally from here on out will depend on whether some real longs start filtering in, and on getting a steady stream of shorts back into/out of Ursa as they get steadily burned. We'll see.
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