Shack, I know you guys don't respect Max Pain, but it's 24 on the QQQ. The new lows I expect Monday are around 21, so that will put us $3 under Max Pain, or 120-points.
Normally during options expiration we tag the high side of Max Pain when possible, and the low side. If we tag the high side, it would call for possibly a 140 to 160-point rally off an expected low around NDX 840-850.
If we ran 115 points off 845, then it would equal the run from 877 to 992. A 20-point throw-over would get us to 980 NDX and 0.50 above Max Pain.
Anyway, that's the set-up I'm looking for, with a high on Wednesday, August 15 or so. With CSCO on Tuesday after the bell, a reversal this Wednesday or late Tuesday would fit the scenario well.
I do believe we'll get a new low on the NDX, but possibly not on the COMP. If there is a new low on the COMP, it may only be a point or two, IMO. |
