a quote from Andrew Kashdan <<-- GDP: A Little Less Pretty
Not only was the recession of 2001 miraculously transformed into a three-quarter contraction instead of merely a one-quarter affair, the 2002 recovery is turning out to be less impressive than originally thought. And this is even before all the talk about the crisis of confidence has had a chance to show up in the numbers. Second-quarter GDP increased at an annualized rate of only 1.1%, or less than half the expected increase. (We hasten to include the usual warning that advance estimates are subject to substantial revision.)
"Investment by business, however, showed some improvements," said The Wall Street Journal, straining to find a silver lining. Unfortunately, "improvement," as portrayed by the Journal, meant that business spending on new plants and other buildings only collapsed at a 14% annual rate in the second quarter, vs. the 14.2% rate of decline in the previous quarter. The paper also noted the revision to fourth-quarter GDP, now showing growth at a 2.7% rate instead of 1.7%. Well, break out the champagne! We doubt that the Journal's version of good news will turn around those stubborn consumer confidence numbers, especially since some of the other GDP revisions were not nearly so comforting. >> Also data i see on revised corporate profits ,all the back to the first qt. of 1999 is one continuous quarter after quarter of downward revision, all the revisions are significantly downward, shows how near everything in the bubble was all tainted and corrupted. GD. |
