Andrew Kashdan on "Some Good News?" <<-- Some Good News?
Even in tenuous times, there is always something for those of a bullish persuasion to hold on to. ISI Group, although becoming more cautious in its outlook, is training its sights on some of the positives. Its company surveys indicate a reacceleration in activity, a decline in unemployment claims and a pickup in money growth, all signs of a near-term upturn for the economy. In particular, a survey that closely tracks the actual amount of orders at capital goods manufacturers bounced back in July after a drop in June. On the consumer side, mortgage refinancing has taken off again, and to the certain delight of Alan Greenspan who encouraged it, ISI's contacts are seeing a lot of cash-out activity. (How long it can last is another story, particularly when interest rates finally bottom. But, hey, this is the good news segment!) Short term, however, rising "cash-outs" should help to boost consumer spending. Furthermore, if the stock market can manage to stop falling for a while, consumer confidence will certainly recover a bit. Therefore, a prediction: The economy will be no worse off 30 days from now. Remember, this is the good news segment.>> end quote |
