Mr. Pink's Picks: selected event-driven value investments Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Mr. Pink's Picks: selected event-driven value investments

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To: oryx who wrote (16828)	8/4/2002 12:05:09 PM
From: MAELING	Read Replies (1) of 18998

The way I dealt with Gemstone was to assume that it was a total write-off. I don't think it's a 'sham' and I don't think it's a write-off. Real is dropping, but the plants will retain value. Their heat rate will stay the same no matter what the currency does. My only concern is that there could be stuff hidden. The 10K appears to be forthright about Gemstone and Chaparral. They removed the triggers by guaranteeing the debt. This allows them to pay it at their convenience. Electron's pulling profits forward may help the CEO's bonus and cost taxes, but it is GAAP. Maybe GAAP should be rolled back. The profits are real. Yes, there is risk over the life of the contracts. Hence the discount rate incalculation NPV. (If none fail, at term, there will be a windfall profit.) Photon has been halted. IR gave me the make-up and total exposure. Shorting here appears to be noise trading. Sort of like betting on red at a casino.

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