Hi Jay,
You raise some interesting points. I'll try to knock them back down.
Re: (a) bubbles are necessary for rapid implementation of new infrastructures and technologies
Necessary is hardly the term I'd use. Bubbles are ancillary and irrelevant to the implementation of technological breakthroughs, IMHO. They are the creation of synaptic mis-firings in the evolutionarily handicapped hard-wiring of the human mind. A sack of protoplasm that hasn't matured to the point of comprehending that we no long live on a "feast or famine hunter-chase" planet. The grasping that surrounds advances like the Internet phenomenon quite likely did absolutely nothing to truly advance the adaptation of the technology. It would have moved apace equally if Dr. Koop.con, Pets.con, and Webvan.con, among others, had never existed. These schemes were merely mechanisms for wealth transfer, and had nothing to do with advancing the culture or technology.
I believe it is vitally important to understand financial manias for what they. Basically, as I see it, they are society wide episodes of madness that only a select few, either wily or lucky get to take advantage of. They most certainly aren't necessary. Though they are necessarily exciting, exhilirating and eventually exhausting.
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Re: (b) recessions are necessary for cleansing the foam and fizz of bubbles
Again, I nonconcur. I don't see recessions as necessary, but rather as inevitable. I recall fondly the delusion that many enjoyed in 2000, when "the new era, and the end of recessions" was spoken of by the bulls of the day. Heady optimism, not soon to be repeated.
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Re: (d) Argentina 2001 are necessary for Argentina 2005,
Really, it's not that simple. A large part of the current malaise in Argentina can be direct ascribed to anti-democratic decisions taken at the highest level of corrupt regimes, like Menem's, which permitted global bankers, and global swindle-shops like Enron to achieve too great an influence on the financial aspects of Agentina. The current "austerity" imposed by the IMF is designed to make Citigroup and Banco Santindor(sp?) whole, while doing vast damage to the middle class in Argentina. Why? Simply for the sake of greed, and certainly not for the sake of enlightened public policy. What has happened to Argentina is a harbinger of the future that all national middle classes are likely to suffer as the insufferable cabal of crony capitalists who control the levers at WTO, BIS, IMF, WB, NAFTA, etc. all try to squeeze humanity for the sake of the greed of the elite. It's completely unseemly, again a characteristic of the human consciousness which hasn't properly evolved from our most ancient days when domination of a tribal territory wasn't nearly as catastophic for the planet as is the current fashion for the greedheads to act globally, and evade all local community-based responsibility for their repugnant grasping.
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Re: (e) maybe, perhaps, revolutions are necessary for rapid progress through history loops
I think the jury is still out on the efficacy of "revolution". That which occurred in the U.S. in the 1770's has been hailed as one of the best. But the thought that went into the documents that are the basis of our nation were really evolutionary extensions of the basic principals of the Enlightenment which was coursing through civil discourse throughtout England and the Continent at the time. They were more of a logical culmination, rather than a "revolution". Basically, as I see it, from the words of the Declaration of Independence, a nature desire for free men to seek to escape an oppressive and unfair yoke. That of King George III, in that day. And King George II today in the U.S. I reviewed the Declaration on our national holiday, the Fourth of July. I was impressed that of the dozen or so conditions of unfair exploitation by royalty that were expressed at the time, we've reverted to an imperial government that is guilty of at least two-thirds of the grievances that were redressed by the Declaration. Maybe it is time we have another "revolution". Which would actually be a remarkably reactionary and conservative move, taking us back to the levels of individual freedom and states rights we'd achieved in 1780.
And which have been slowly, consciously and inexorably whittled away at by the forces of centrality ever since.
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Re: (a) Greensputin tries to short circuit economic cycle
(b) Japan failed to do so
Greenspan is going to become an irrelevancy to the economic forces he's unleashed over the last half dozen years. Failing to control the excesses of the derivatives market, the inexorably increasing gaming that occurred with all the SPE, SPV, and elaborate off-shore swindle-schemes that the bankers were creating, and his obeisance to the banker class have created an explosive situation that is of the banker's own making. Their rapacious grasping has now got the world's economy on hair trigger. And they don't really have an endgame in sight. Mere bandaiding is all they've come up with for the last few months. As the scandals of corporate "malfea'ance" continue to roil the markets, Greenspan is left with very few tools with which to attempt to turn Supertanker America back onto a favored course. Much of this is of his own making. By being so indulgent of the shenanigans of his member banks, he's created the greatest level of "moral hazard" the world has even known. When the history of our era is written, the Savings & Loan debacle of the 1980's, which will eventually cost the U.S. taxpayer about half a trillion dollars, will be viewed as a minor glitch, on the road to perdition that we seem to inexorably be heading down.
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Re: (c) One-man-one-vote construct short circuits Revolutionary cycles ...
Halleluiah! A way for man to save himself, from himself.
Cheerio! Ray |
