Good morning, Vietnam:
Everybody having fun? We start off each day with a look at the VIX, which is becoming more and more like morning prayers:
stockcharts.com[w,a]dbllyiay[pf][vc60][iut][J4230851,Y]&pref=G
I don't know much about the double dip recession, vel non, but it certainly looks like Vixie enjoyed that heady air up at 56 intraday to make another sprint for it, so it looks like we'll see a very rare VIX double trouble top.
What's amazing to me is now people come out and talk about their cash positions ("I'm all cash," "glad I'm in cash") in a similar way to the way they were happy to be fully invested or "max-margin" just 2.5 years ago. Plus ca change, plus c'est la meme merde. People are frozen near the bottom and jubilant near the top, when history shows they should be feeling and acting the opposite. Oh well, far be it from me to try to change all of human (and sub-human, let's not forget some of the folks from the Yahoo boards) nature.
Naz is very close to making new lows which would take it back to the summer of 1996, if I'm reading my handy dandy scrolling Naz chart correctly. July and August 1996 had Nazzes in the 1050 range. On July 24,2002 we already took out all of 1997, so what the hey. But the Naz is a beast. The same things which served to power it onward and upward, concentration of power in a few names, is taking it back down, I think. Cisco is down $0.60, or 6 percent, but since it is still about 5% of the Naz, by itself it will drop the Naz 0.3%. When you add the effect "Cisco news" has on the market, you can see that when Cisco sneezes everyone else gets the flu.
dynamic.nasdaq.com
I'm looking for another VIX spike to at least the low fifties (the double VIX top) tomorrow or Wednesday, and another bounce bottom, this time at 7550 in the Dow (let's rename it the "Down"??) and 1050 in the Naz. Keep your powder dry.
Opposing views welcome--
Kb |
