double dips, recession, bear markets, and war
been reading many economic analyses with references to post-WW2 history
it seems that only 1991 offered up a single dip recession
the norm is double dip, with majority of cases
in 1970's we had a triple dip recession
which is what I expect early in this decade
something like 2001, then 2003, and again 2005
in 1970's we took severe shocks from OPEC after a long long strong bull market in the 1960's after rebuilding in the 1950's following WW2
but my eye is on history from 1930's
because that is the era offering greatest similarity now
in 1914 the USA felt confident about establishing a new institution, called the Federal Reserve
it funded massive expansion in automobiles, and margin debt in stocks
after seeing what a monster it built, the Fed cut off the credit supply, and kept it tight for 2-3 years
it was an abomination to the freemarket
the Federal Reserve shouldve been disbanded among FDR's reforms
in 2000 we saw another popped bubble, after a decade of credit abuse once again, with numerous asset bubbles, and expansion in telecom using wireless and fiberoptic
now, despite ample continued Fed printing press activity
with crisp slick new metal-threaded $100 and $20 and $10 and $5 bills
the gradual deterioration of the US economy continues
just like 1931,32
in the long drawn out 1930's, the European continent deserved the political focus
Germany was in desperate shape, electing National Socialists
we call them Nazis
the economic endless recession finally ended with WW2
now we face another elongated economic recession
Bushy talks tough with war against terrorism
but we dont know very much about their identities
one of the most elusive stories about Islamic Fundy Terrorists is ...
WE CANNOT EVEN SPELL THEIR NAMES TO ENTER INTO DATABASES
they dont all look alike
but their names all seem impossible to pronounce or spell
I expect this decade to see a widening war
Iraq may have links to AlQaeda, maybe not
Iraq may have mass destruction weapons, maybe not
it almost doesnt matter
sooner or later, a war will be seen by our leaders as a necessary evil in order to deal with our caustic atttitudes toward our country, our economy, our leaders, our institutions, our malaise, our domestic distrust disorder
I expect war in the next couple years
gonna be a truly ugly decade
not just ugly, but fugly
/ jim |
