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Technology Stocks : Fiberspace Investing
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To: Gary Walker who wrote (520)8/5/2002 7:30:37 PM
From: Sam Citron  Read Replies (1) of 525
 
Gary,

One factor was the flip side of all that DWDM investment that boosted the capacity of each fiber optic strand 1000-fold. Since the extra cost of the cable was marginal, while the cost of trenching was the major expense, everyone sunk much more fiber into the ground, knowing it would be dark for quite awhile, in order to have it to trade for dark fiber someplace else, to expand the network. I worried about overcapacity and feared that GLW and LU might have some lean years down the road, but nothing like this. I looked at it as a normal fiberoptic cycle, not as the bubble of all bubbles.

Now the question becomes: how long will it take before the industry can get back on its feet and who will be left standing? Will all the spoils go to the bondholders, leaving hapless stockholders with worthless bits of paper?

Sam
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