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Strategies & Market Trends : Precious Metals mutual funds (gold, silver, PGMs)
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To: Dan P who wrote (682)8/5/2002 8:02:47 PM
From: Larry S.  Read Replies (1) of 972
 
Dan, et al,

I hope you are right but, to me, it somehow doesn't feel like it is doing more than wandering and establishing a base.

There was actually a positive story about a PM miner in Barron's this week, Coeur d'Alene. CHERYL STRAUSS EINHORN, who used to write the Commodities Corner, wrote the story and suggests that it "offers a cheap hedge against a lengthy bear market". That is a mouthful. There were several other interesting stories, none very bullish on the markets and generally bearish on the dollar. Epstein doesn't see a double dip but he doesn't see the economy making much progress this year either.

The action of lease rates continues to be interesting. However, Kitco didn't publish changes between 7/31 and today. The one year rate had gotten at least as high as 0.84 but was back to 0.74% today. The drop was consistent with the bullish action of going in the opposite direction to the POG. More importantly, Wanniski indicates on his site that O'Neal and Greenspan have told him to stop bothering them so it seems reasonable to conclude that they aren't paying attention to his magic 325 either. This blows my theory that they were letting the POG go up to 325. Even so, it sure appears as though 325 is a formidable barrier and that the market is satisfied with a low of 300.

The GMI/POG ratio:

On 08/01, the Barron's GMI was 371.61, up slightly from the previous week's 362.30. With the POG up at 305.05 (08/02), the ratio was up at 1.22.

The ratio a year previously was 1.07.

Cheers,
Larry
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