Paul, fwiw the XAU showed signs of violating the wave 1 issue back in early July, and did so in earnest about July 22.
This verified that the XAU was never in an impulse up, it was a corrective. Now imho the XAU could be in an impulse down, and about halfway thru the 4th corrective of the current major down, meaning the 5th down is yet to come. It this count continues, which we won't know until it does, the bottom would be 45ish. The key imo is not necessarily the bottom on this leg down, but the peak on the next leg up.
Folks have been touting the HUI, but imo the XAU has been the better leading indicator, by far. Touting the HUI (I agree with Sharp's implications) because it is more hedged, is a little wishful thinking.
If you think I'm full of beans, so is augieboo (I guess):
investorshub.com
Now if I only would have counted the SOXX as good as I did the XAU, everything would be fine for me. I missed it by one wave so it seems. No one that I know of has read everything correct here.
My current opinion is still for a corrective rally in tech and the general markets. Have to be correct sooner or later, so I'll keep on thinking it. When it happens I'll exit my current longs.
After that, sometime next year, I think a big down wave hits the general markets, and it will be meaner than this one by far. If my thinking is correct just imagine. If this one was bad, the next one will have some folks jumping out of windows.
I mentioned sometime ago that everyone seems to be on a faster timescale than this market. Still seems to be the case. And this imho means the double dip comes, just not as soon as everyone expects, and maybe a whole lot more severe.
In the meantime, back to fishing here in AK. |
