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Pastimes : Home on the range where the buffalo roam
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To: Boplicity who wrote (8608)8/6/2002 12:55:07 AM
From: Sig  Read Replies (1) of 13815
 
<< Like herding cats, LOL I'm just glad I'm keeping just a half open eye on the market. I would hate to be looking at the screen >>
Looking at screen is not nice. Wish someone would come by to drag us away from the market.
As to the question of how far down it goes, IMO the (average) P/E's must drop considerably. Especially since some earnings are decreasing and thus raising the present P/E.
I would not be surprised to see a 40% haircut and a Dow near 5K.
. Not all in one day tho, as there are always people like myslf who foolishly put in buy orders 15% down and get them filled. So we are not seeing your vicious one day drop , and with hedge funds at work and so many shares outstanding, the overall market is slower to respond. So it could take a while.
Instead of looking at a flat or slightly up economy, company managers must be very busy considering
what will happen if their sales or earnings drop 10 to 20 %. And you could count on two things there. They will not be hiring extra people, nor spending more money. An exception here are the (rare) cash-rich companies like
Intc, Msft, Dell, Csco who may take this opportunity to buy other companies on the cheap.
. But even they may be making a mistake in doing so or perhaps pay too much in the short term. They can afford to look ten years out and there is no question whatever that technology is here to stay.
Sig
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