Bernard,
I absolutely agree that the "bottom line" of stock prices is that they are determined by what people are willing to pay, and this willingness to pay varies widely across time even without changes in the "true" value of a stock.
However, I still believe that if a stock does well fundamentally, its stock price will eventually catch up, and of course the converse is that if it does badly fundamentally the stock price will soon reflect this bad performance.
With SEPR, we had a big fundamental problem with their non-approvable letter that cast doubt on their whole business plan, which was based on a rapid and expensive build-up of their sales force financed with convertible bonds. In conjunction with a weak biotech market, that has decimated their stock.
As for technical analysis, all I know is that I have no expertise at it, and for that matter don't know many TA people who are now crowing about how they made a bunch money in the recent bear market. TA is very easy in retrospect, but then of course so is fundamental analysis. <g>
Peter |
