Paul, I won't go out on a limb and say that, but that is one conclusion I suppose that could be drawn.
I've had very good success wave charting the XAU on a ST basis. Got me out at the top and I've stayed out. I've looked at the LT charts a bit, but they are too confusing for me - in other words I ain't that good and I admit it.
Looked at Prechter's site once, when they had some stuff available, whilst the bull run was in progress. In short they had this last bull run pegged as a corrective all along, and that this wave down we are in, which was speculation at that point in time, was the last big downer (as I recall). They postulated lows for POG which were in the 200 dollar range, but these were limits. I certainly doubt that to be the case.
My own personal opinion is not fixed in concrete and I try to keep it that way. I don't know enough to fix any such thing in concrete. But I think we both probably agree a liquidity fueled rally is in the offing here, and that probably won't be positive for gold. Looks to me like the dollar is just completing a little 5 wave up, inferring that could be the 1st of a 5 wave sequence. So right now I'm sort of thinking gold is on hold until later this year next year time frame. AND I'm also LT bullish, thinking the next bull up pushes gold beyond 325/330 where it has to go to break out.
My plan is just to remain on the sidelines until POG and XAU look like they've bottomed, and I don't think the signs are visible yet. Getting caught up in a gold equity down draft is highly undesirable. The SOXX is bad enough.
BWDIK. I'm not a vet like you guys and when I see everyone having trouble - it means this is one tough mother to get 100 % correct. |
