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Technology Stocks : ADSL IS DEAD

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To: elmatador who wrote (126)	8/7/2002 10:35:22 AM
From: David Hansen	of 135

I knew this was coming, I have personally worked on some Avidia replacement deals... Lucent has recently consolidated their DSLAM development effort. Both Stinger and Anymedia are all "under one roof" now. Makes a lot of sense to me... With vendors pulling out right and left of this market even a successful DSLAM vendor like Lucent has to reign in costs to boost margins back to where they rightfully should be. Also it should allow for a more comprehensive portfolio of products in the future as development dollars are no longer going to two product houses. Largely, one can demonstrate beyond any doubt that Lucent's Stinger FS+ still has the highest port density whether in a shelf or in a rack. Importance of density claims only mean anything to the RBOC market. It is interesting to see how vendors make their density claims. Some vendors are actually based on a back to back configuration, excluding any splitter. If Lucent positioned their FS+ like say Nokia and others, an equivalent FS+ would be 3024 ports, way higher than any other dslams. Port density on a DSLAM is one thing, but splitters are nowhere near as dense, and if one layed out 100K splitters, they would representing 70% of the floor space. No one thinks of that when doing head to head comparisons... Alcatel who has nothing but a dirt cheap dslam shows us the other viable approach --> complex high tech or low tech simplicity... Low tech simplicity is probably more compelling to the ICOS and CLECS... I'm guessing that it would represent lower OPEX dollars to get up and get going but more expensive in the long run as you grow the solution. Nokia's D500 was impressive with the annoucement but does anyone know of any being deployed? Lots of D50s still out there... Back to the main point, DSL is far from dead. Taking a bit of a breather. A lot less competition but the business continues to grow. Cable still has the edge and probably will for another couple years. JMHO...

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