<still buying more calls than puts>
The put call ratio I use would consider .45-.50 as normal. During the mania it ran at .30-.40 for months. We had one day (July 19) over 1.00, at 1.14. Plus 1.00 days are very rare. Right now the ten day average is .78. The high was .85 on July 25. There have been plus .60 readings on the PC only four times in the 90's;
Jan. 14, 1991: ahead of a 20% gain in one month
April 23, 1997: came in 9 days after absolute low, but still caught 20% gain over next three months.
August 21, 1998: 7 days below absolute low, caught a 31% gain over 8 months. This rally faltered got another double bottom reading on
October 8, 1998, then caught 45% gain over 7 months.
It's not the only indicator I watch (but other are confirming), but is definitely one to take strong note of, especially on extremes. At minimum you definitely don't want to be short here as so many are. I covered my JPM, RDN, COF, HI shorts in mid-July. |
