This is based on my beliief that the bear will end with a whimper and not fireworks. When all is said and done, nobody is going to want to put money in the market and therefore there will be nobody to drive the stock price up.
Of course, you can probably use this as an indication that the bottom is in.
I think the difference between you and me, is that I have lived through 2 "mini bears" in either tech as a whole or my area (software) in the last 20 years and it took a little while to wring out the excess but things came right back. One was in the mid 80s while I was in college at Cal, IBM at 200$/sh and apple at 60$, when that "1984" ad came out... by 1987 you couldn't get a job in technology to save your life. Same with databases and software in early 90s, huge layoffs. I know the overall mkt was a bull (sort of) but the naz was NOT.
The problem with comparisons to past bubbles, which some on this thread do, is that includes the tulip mania etc., no economic basis for the valuation... ever. (I still think bubble comparisons are valid, just that you need to keep them in context).
Hyped up california houses fell hard in the early 90s, and came back, Andy Warhol paintings which were millions in 1989 fell and came back. I think the same thing will happen here. I agree with you the bear will end with a whimper, apparently thats what happened in the 70s too.
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