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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT)
AMAT 267.87-0.6%Dec 5 9:30 AM EST
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To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (2118)8/7/2002 2:51:01 PM
From: Alastair McIntosh   of 25522
 
You mention that I did not address IC spending. Here is the
table with IC sales and growth rates added. I have also
revised 2004 EPS to 0.80 to bring 2004 valuation to $16.00.

sales in billions of $

Calendar Year 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002E 2003E 2004E
Semi Sales 125.6 149.4 204.4 139 141.9 163.1 195.8
Sales Growth % - 18.9 36.8 -32.0 2.1 14.9 20.0
Capex/Rev % 21.9 21.3 28.8 27.7 21.8 22.8 23.7
Industry Capex 27.5 31.8 58.9 38.5 31 37.2 46.5
Capex Growth % - 15.6 85.2 -34.6 -19.5 20.0 25.0
AMAT sales 4.0 5.09 9.56 7.34 4.88 5.95 7.9
AMAT capex % 14.5 16.0 16.2 19.1 15.7 16.0 17.0
AMAT EPS - 0.44 1.20 0.59 0.20 0.50 0.80

I would be interested to read other views of the growth rate of
IC sales. I think my predictions are reasonable as I have
used an increasing growth rate of IC sales, capex/revenue
and AMAT's % of capex. From 2003 to 2004 an IC sales
increase of 20% yields a 33% increase in AMAT sales.
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