ajtj, I don't know why you think I responded to you in a wry manner, it surely was not the intent. I have delineated quite clearly a number of time "the "grand model" I am following and many more times the detailed model for the short term. The model has been wrong from time to time, and I have admitted that as well. But I am not buying the 1929 model, and if you ask for why, it is because I developed my own that does not follow the 1929 scenario, it follows a shortened 1966/82 scenario, it has since late 1999. That model kept me out of all the major declines (and no, I do not consider premature entries that "cost" me another 100 to 150 Naz point a major problem, the model has always been premature at major bottoms by a week to three weeks in the past). The end stages of these declines are always quite volatile, and by Jove, that is real fun. As for people losing money, even if you assume that people did nothing since July third (and I did change my stance to neutral after the July 5th run and its failure, to done the horns again at 1315) and just got in the Q, they are doing quite fine. However, all those that got out when I donned my bear suit on April 22nd, or even as late as May 15th and stayed out till July third (and many did), saved more than what they might have lost in the last month. Compare that to our "Friendly Bear" call to go into the energy group of the like of MIR on May 24th in this post: #reply-17514348.
Zeev |
