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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch
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To: mt_mike who wrote (4191)8/8/2002 1:59:43 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (3) of 89467
 
exactly why US asset contraction will be far worser
bankruptcies will be the order of the day
I have made my outrageous prediction several times
20% of American households will end of declaring BKtcy
in Q1 alone it was 365,000
which represents about 2% of households (not sure here)
the Puplava graph of BKtcies is scarey
it peaked late in 2001 at around 400,000
I stand pat with my 20% call

so in the US, we will have liquidations out the yingyang
in Japan they continue to support the walking dead companies
they get absorbed into the keiretsus (conglomerates)
same in Korea with chaebols
my point is that Japan suffers from stagnation as a result of the absence of bankruptcies, either personal or corporate
they save very effectively
so they have been able to survive

I fear a much worse scenario in America
we will not have savings to fall back upon
the liquidation BKs will couple with job layoffs to produce a monstrous problem
it will feed upon itself, providing more need for federal assistance, for federal money infusions (but how?)

soon the only spending some will be able to manage is from direct hand2mouth from the USGovt
that is what I expect
like federal tax rebates, which were far too watered down last year
for instance, I didnt get a dime since I was on QCOM Sabbatical in 2000
spreading rebates over several years is like not having any at all

I smell political fighting will gut the decisionmaking base altogether
we simply wont react until it is too late
numbnut Dems and numbnut GOP's will fight and do nothing
meanwhile Congress approves $B's in the wrong places

this is gonna get so incredibly ugly by next year
it is starting to affect my sleep imagining its unfolding

AND NOBODY SEEMS TO POINT THE FINGER AT THE CONTINUED STRONG DOLLAR POLICY, OR THE PAST STRONG DOLLAR POLICY
it bankrupted America, by pricing us out of the world economy
it attracted foreign capital, only to cause a bubble in assets which is now broken
AND OUT OF CONTROL
Argentina, here we come !!!
/ jim
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