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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group
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To: BigBull who wrote (36529)8/8/2002 5:05:58 PM
From: Gulo  Read Replies (1) of 281500
 
FWIW, I just had a long discussion with a guy from Iran. He just came over and will shortly get his family out.

He isn't in any sort of trouble there, and doesn't feel personally threatened by the theocracy. He feels confident that he can rent out his house in Iran and maintain ownership while in self-imposed exile.

His assessment is that the reformers have lost ground significantly in the last year or so. The state has paid some lip service to democratic ideals and is allowing some freedom of expression - but only to better to identify the opposition. They have agents that take part in opposition activities so that they can find out who is behind them.

He also confirms that arabic speakers have been used for security. He feels that the current regime has little chance of opening up, as the true power is passed on to the most radical islamists. The theocracy will not give up its veto over democratic institutions (such as they are in Iran).

On the other hand, he says that 80% of the population is against the islamists. In some parts of the country, the dress code is beginning to liberalize (curve enhancing dresses, for example).

In short, he figures the theocracy will be strong for the next few years, but when it falls, it will fall hard.
-g
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