If we're only talking about Iraq, you're probably right. We need a staging area in another country. Turkey might be amenable. We already have an airbase at Diyarbakir not too far from their Turkish border.
If the rest of the Arabs stay out, we might be able to get things set up, then go in, overpower their air force, wipe out their SAMs, get control of the air, and then invade. The result would most likely be the same as last time. They'd be surrendering in droves.
But suppose you get into the air war- -and the rest of the Arabs rise? All of them. They cut off the oil- -both to the Europeans and us. The countries around Iraq send their armies in to help out. 15,000 mullahs declare jihad. Every woman, every kid is your enemy. The Europeans (led by the French, of course) in their inimitable style, raise hell. They forbid us to us bases in their countries to support the operations.
Now what? Nukes?
Great powers fall because of hubris. They take on a small enemy and win. Then take on a larger one and win. Then .....
Until they take on one and don't win. They may not fall immediately; they may be able to hang onto part of their power. But they are exhausted. And their people now know they are not invincible. Then they make a mistake....
And at this point the US is nothing if not full of hubris. There is this feeling that we can beat any enemy. That we could conquer the planet if we so wished.
Many other empires, now dust, have had that same thought. |
