P&S and STO Death Blow's Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Lone Ranger who wrote (4963)	8/8/2002 9:25:58 PM
From: Jeff	Read Replies (4) of 30712

thanks.......like i said before...i'm not bear or bull....i'm calling what i see....i just tell it like it is... this thread started in may....the retrace said nothing but down with a likely target low in july and it looked like it was the one under 1200.....look at a chart...thats exactly what happened from the 1759 top in may....so of course i have been bearish this whole time....it was the obvious position to take..... but when we hit that target bottom in july....i said congrats to all those who followed this down with me....but now its no time to take a solid position again because we have entered the ramp and dump zone now as shown on the retrace......so just been daytrading this area and watching for signs of the next top...... but overall.....we are still in the retrace pattern....nothing has changed.....1298 was not a major t-q top....it was a top off a pattern of t-q readings that in the past should not have been passed on the next day.... but then again....this is options paint time so anything goes....lots of rules are broken in the need to ramp.....we have seen this all before.....only difference is this options ramp they brought some spx and dow anti-venom to the ramp-a-thon....and that needed to be respected.... but they left a major clue behind before this ramp started.....NDX pierced the july lows.....so its just another sucker run that we have seen all the way down....had they not pierced that low and with the anti-venom i see.....i could easily change my stance here to maybe the bottom was the july low..... so know i pull out the schedule of how the sept lows fell.... NDX was first to fall on june 12th....nasdaq followed on june 26th....spx on july 3rd....and dow on july 19.... so now we have NDX new low august 5th......i have a good idea what comes next....so this is one guide.... another guide is the next tops....1326 was the top of the crows....1354 was the last high on the first ramp off the 1192 bottom.....if you remember the retrace close up of this area.....there are 3 touches down near that bottom...it looks like a triple bottom.....and the ramps and dumps come of each bottom.....so we had the first bottom at 1192...ramp to 1354......2nd touch was 1205...and we got back over 1300 now again.....i believe the 3rd trip down will pierce that 1192 low and follow the schedule of nasdaq is next to make that new low after NDX.... and then the next sucker run up will be the last ramp in the pattern....and then the spx and dow fall later on to new lows as they all tumble together as the next major low should come in late sept to october for all of them.... thats what i'm looking at now..... as far as the present.....i just see the same old sucker run combined with an options ramp where bad news is ignored till the deed is done....remember all that bad news last week....and the dump off it into monday....that was reality.....option ramps are fiction..... as of today...and since the retrace is still intact and it has been dead on this whole year.....the scenario with the major t-q tops marked and compared to the bottom of the 32 bubble retrace and aftermath and using the same pattern of 32.....theres no recovery till mid 2004..... early in june the fiber op companies came out and said they see nothing next year and are looking to 2004.....semi's came out and said maybe mid 2003.....CSCO has no visibility going forward.....everything is being pushed back farther and plays right into what the aftermath in the 30's shows..... the dow lost 89% from 29-32 or 35 months....the nasdaq has lost 75% in 28 months..... 89% loss in nasdaq is around 700..... when dow bottomed in 32....7 months later it came back down and tested that bottom and made a "higher low"....remember that was a major bottom..... NDX already broke its july low after just a week.....so that right there says the july lows where not even close to a major bottom....a major bottom isn't tested to a lower low in just a few days.....for me thats a major clue.... so even the most bullish of folks should know this is all coming back down again either by the retrace pattern to lower lows.....or a retest with a wider time gap before its legit....

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next