Ahh. . . finally coming round to my "IT low is in" way, eh? I knew you would. <g> Me and MM been thumping that drum for weeks, I tell ya!
What's fascinating, and no doubt true at all such inflection points like we're at now, is that even a dummy like me can look at a handful of charts and make the case for up OR down. The banks made a stunning reversal, but looking at the charts of the BKX, those one day ramps have not held up. In fact, they've marked short term highs (within a day or two). That said, yesterday's Naz candle had ALSO marked two recent highs, and in this downtrend, today's Naz performance was unprecedented. Perhaps times have changed? One more good bank day, and they too break the downtrend.
I still look at the VIX and to me, if we are gonna set new lows in non-tech, it's gonna come sooner rather than later. Once the VIX is in a real downtrend, it's hard to reverse it til it gets low. Well, that's what history says. Interestingly, it also seems to me that the Dow is making a triangle (May downtrend line with uptrend line from the July low), so the case for a new low is still there. I suspect a VIX collapse would coincide with a break UP from that formation, and could happen as soon as tomorrow.
the freep, who's been down so long it looks like up to me |
