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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group
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To: Hawkmoon who wrote (36517)8/9/2002 2:26:06 AM
From: Bilow  Read Replies (1) of 281500
 
Hi Hawkmoon; Re the Ayatollah's days being numbered.

I agree completely that the government using Arab speakers signifies that it ain't gonna be around too much longer. This is reminiscent of the situation in Afghanistan.

(1) From the point of view of support for terrorism, it's much easier to make a case to push over the government in Iran than the one in Iraq.

(2) From the point of view of a lack of public support for the government, Iran is also probably the target of opportunity.

(3) From the point of view of Middle Eastern stability, getting rid of the revolutionary Islamic Republic of Iran makes more sense than getting rid of the secular Iraqi state.

(4) From the point of view of getting support from Saudi Arabia or Kuwait, it probably makes more sense to push over Iran.

I'm not in favor of action against Iran or Iraq, but what I'm saying here is that Iran sure looks like a more suitable target. A US attack against either country is likely to do the same thing that the Iran - Iraq war did in 1980, unite the target. The safe play is to sit back and let the Iranians find their own way. Even publicly announcing what people or organization we'd like to win has a detrimental effect on them, as they end up being tied to the United States.

-- Carl

P.S. Instead, we should be using reverse logic on them, and saying stuff like "Iran is so backwards that they'll never develop a real economy or be a significant country in any way. They're hopelessly ineducable. All they have is oil."
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