FOLKS HERE'S MY NEWSLETTER FROM LAST SUNDAY, I AM SHORT TERM BULLISH HERE WHAT WITH THE INDEXS GETTING READY TO EXPLODE...IF AJC WOULD SHUT HER MOUTH<G>...I AM HEADING OUT TO THE SHORE FOR SOME SUN FUN AND LOBSTER<G>..HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND ALL..AND PLEASE USE STOPS ALWAYS...
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JERRY OLSON'S
"POINT" OF VIEW NEWSLETTER
DATED AUG 4TH 2002
"VOODOO ECONOMIC MUMBO JUMBO"
Hi everyone, just got back from the shore, and had a sensational fun filled weekend..The beach was awesome, the water temp must have been 80 degrees although a lot of seaweed and such..Heck it didn't stop me from swimming all day long...We ate drank and made merry all through the wee hours of the morning..Gosh I loved it...I hope this newsletter finds you all in good health and spirits...
Well I do not remember a market so nutsy crazy like this one..While it's great for us daytraders scalpers, it must be driving everyone else to the brink of insanity...And these economic numbers coming out every day, man can anyone ADD?...Can anyone understand we are still not in good shape yet? Can anyone understand that this is a slow recovery because of companies not willing to step up to the plate like the consumer has?..And for sure these prudent CFO's & CEO's have just NOW gotten religion, that's for damn sure..All of a sudden it's NOT FULL STEAM AHEAD, nope now these corporate wizards are trying to SAVE THEIR OWN ASSES from certain jail time on down the road..Spend companies money??? not me pal...
Yeah folks the wheel DOES TURN...Maybe the mere fact that these crims will get their just due, will at the least put a smile on the very faces they scammed...But more important than that is these damn economic numbers...They keep revising them every month, can't they count? and who the hell is counting anyway?<g>...We all have been watching these numbers falling like Humpty Dumpty for months now. So why the surprise? Did they actually think the GDP was growing at 2-3%? How, and by what basis?...The only REAL area of the entire business community that was a rip roarer was the housing market and it began to roll over on our charts a month or 2 ago...All those nice homebuilder charts fell outta bed...yes their starting to move back up again here after being oversold short term , and they were due for a pullback...but these numbers are always lagging the reports...So they scare the hell out of everyone...
Me? well to tell you the truth I have not been scared since the 87 crash<VBG>...and that's because I had NO CLUE as to what transpired...I do have a clue now...we have not bottomed yet, and we ARE NOT INVESTING JUST YET...But the bottom IS coming here, and it's coming sooner than later...I continue to impress upon you to sell your dogs on the next to last rally up, and use the cash for the coming big selloff...you'll be a happy camper if you get your house in order..I see the underlying signs of a sensational rally beginning this fall..As the bearishness continues here as soon as the NYSE & OTC BP's reverse back up, we will dive into this abyss with everything we have, and the seasonality will be with us too boot...I love the FALL<g>...PUN INTENDED.
Ok let's talk about this week and the early part of the next week, and the implications. First we have this CEO debacle coming up through the 14th of August..They have to sign off before that date...We have CSCO after the bell on Tues, always a market mover, how could they be doing good?, we have CYCLE lows on the 9th thru the 12th...Getting the near term picture?, However...and THIS IS IMPORTANT!!! we have a FED meeting on the 13th, they will either CUT rates by a 1/4 or they will move from neutral toward easing bias for sure. This and the market trying to discount the CEO junk could be setting us up for one giant move UP...You heard me UP...In other words once this CEO thing is BEHIND us, that's IT, it's DONE...that's how the market DISCOUNTS news..good or bad...if the FED does their part, we could rally with a serious move north here...AND IF THE P&F INDICATORS "HOLD" WITHOUT REVERSING BACK DOWN?, WELL IT COULD TAKE YOUR BREATHE AWAY...SCARE THE HELL OUT OF THE SHORTS TOO<G>...We'll be ready that's for damn sure...you be ready too...
OK LET'S CHECK ALL THE INDEXS AND INDICATORS WE KNOW AND LOVE...
DJIA---TOUCHES A DOUBLE TOP AT 8700 AND REVERSES AS SELLERS APPEAR THERE AFTER AN HISTORIC 4 DAY 1000 POINT RALLY THAT PUT THE FEAR OF "GOD" IN ALL THOSE SHORTS OUT THERE..CAN IT DO IT AGAIN..YOU BETCHA..I SAID LAST WEEK WE WOULD HAVE TO PULLBACK HERE OFF THE INSANE MOVE...AND WE DID OF COURSE..I WOULD HAVE LIKED TO SEE 8400 AREA HOLD IT DID NOT WE TOUCHED 8250...SO HERE'S THE STORY...IF WE BREAK 8100 I THINK WE MAKE A "HIGHER" LOW AT 7900...YOU COULD SHORT THE DIA'S...ALSO A 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK UP IS 8400 THAT WOULD BE COOL...
NAZ/COMPX---ACTUALLY THIS INDEX ON THE DEFAULT CHART REVERSED UP 3 BOXES TO 1350...IT'S MOVED LOWER HERE, AND 1200 IS THE DOUBLE BOTTOM(DB). ALSO THAT'S THE BOTTOM OF THE 10 WEEK TRADING BAND AGAIN...1150 IS A NO NO
SOX---CONTINUES LOWER AND LOWER HERE NEVER BREAKING THE 20 EMA DAILY SINCE THE MAY TOP..AMAZING REALLY...THE BOTTOM OF THE 10 WEEK IS AT 280...THE DAILY WEEKLY AND MONTHLY STOCHASTIC ARE ALL AT VERY VERY OVERSOLD LEVELS..I LIKE THIS INDEX FOR A SOLID DCB AFTER THE FOMC..
OH BTW..FWIW..THE BPSEMI, REVERSED BACK DOWN AGAIN OBVIOUSLY..FROM 24% TO BREAK A BOTTOM AT 10%, REMEMBER WE SAID 12% WAS THE LAST BOTTOM..6% IS THE HISTORICAL LOW PRINT..WOO HOOSKI...
SPX---WELL FINALLY AFTER IT PLUNGED TO 780 THE RECENT LOWS IT RALLIED UP HARD TO 910 ANOTHER LOWER TOP THOUGH. NOW 850 KEEPS IT IN O'S AND MOVING LOWER. 890 THE 3BXRVUP..930 IS A SPREAD TRIPLE TOP BREAKOUT...WATCH THIS INDEX THRU THE END OF THIS COMING WEEK...
NDX---STILL IN NOTHING MORE THAN A BACKSIDE BOUNCE UP AND INTO THE 20 EMAS..ALMOST EVERY CHART HAD THAT SAME SET UP...IT WAS A SHORT TYPE SET UP IN A GENERAL TREND DOWN...WATCHING 860 FOR ANOTHER BIG BREAK..
BTK---THIS INDEX AFTER BEING THE WORST OF ALL THE INDEXS GAVE A BOTTOM FISH BUY SIGNAL AND ERUPTED ALL THE BIOS WE LOVE TO TRADE..I MEAN THOSE CHARTS JUST CAME TO LIFE..WHEN I UPDATED ALL OF YOU EARLY JULY ABOUT AVOIDING THE SEMIS BECAUSE OF WHAT MY SOURCES TOLD ME ABOUT THE OUTLOOK JUST AHEAD, WE DID MOVE INTO THE BIOS LONG AND KILLED THEM DEAD...I MADE SO MUCH MONEY TRADING THEM AND THE BBH IT'S WAS LIKE STEALING<VBG>...LET'S WAIT FOR THE EXPECTED PULLBACK BELOW 340 SETTING THIS INDEX UP FOR THE NEXT BEST MOVE "UP"..I THINK THIS SECTOR HAS ENORMOUS BULLISH IMPLICATIONS GOING FORWARD...BE PATIENT...
BBH---THIS ONE IS A WHOLE NUTHER BALLGAME...OHH MAN THIS WAS SIMPLY AWESOME FOR ME AND MANY OTHERS THAT TRADED IT IN THE ROOM...IT'S GIVEN SOME SOLID CONSECUTIVE BUY SIGNALS ON P&F..HAD A BIG TIME PUSH UP AND THRU THE BRL LINE..THE BEARISH RESISTANCE LINE, AND THATS A VERY GOOD SIGN GOING FORWARD...THERE'S TOUGH R THERE FOLKS..RIGHT?...SO IF WE CAN GET IT DOWN TO 78ISH AND WE BOTTOM HERE IN THE MARKETS SHORT TERM IN TO THOSE CYCLE DATES, I WILL DIVE IN HERE WITH A NICE STOP AROUND 74...I WANT TO OWN THIS BAD..AND THERE'S THE IBB THE ISHARES TOO...BTW..THE RS(RELATIVE STRENGTH) HAS REVERSED "UP" HERE AGAINST THE SPX...POWERFUL INFO EVERYONE...
SMH---CONTINUE TO AVOID THIS HOLDER FOR NOW...CONTINUES TO FALL AS DOES THE SOX..MY PEOPLE OUT THERE IN SEMIS LA LA LAND HAVE SAID NOTHING THAT HAS CHANGED THEIR MINDS AS TOO THE CURRENT Q AND THE LAST Q...SO WE WAIT AND WE SIT...
NOW THIS IMPORTANT VIX & VXN READINGS..
VIX---HEADSUP HERE EVERYONE..LET'S RECAP HERE FOR A SEC...THE VIX EXPLODES AS THE MARKETS IMPLODED AND TOUCHES 56 A BIG NUMBER OF FEAR THERE, THEN IT FALLS LIKE A STONE SCARING ALL THE SHORTS RIGHT THRU THE BSL LINE..THE BULLISH SUPPORT LINE...AT 34...AND RIGHT AT THE MIDDLE OF THE 10 WEEK TRADING BAND...INTERESTING,,,NOW WE EXPECTED IT TO RALLY UP AS THE MARKETS PULLED BACK AND IT DID OF COURSE...IT TOUCHED 48 SO FAR..THE HIGHER THE BETTER FOR ME WITHOUT BREAKING THAT 56 DOUBLE TOP...I THINK IT WILL CONTINUE UP THRU CYCLE LOWS...THEN IF WE'RE RIGHT ROLL OVER CRASH AND BURN AND BREAK THAT DOUBLE BOTTOM AT 33...
THE VXN---THIS INDEX TOPPED OUT AT 71 AND FELL TO A GOOD DOUBLE BOTTOM RIGHT AT THE BSL, WELL WE ALMOST ALWAYS BOUNCE FROM THAT AREA..AS WE ALMOST ALWAYS SELLOFF WHEN WE DOUBLE TOP AT THE BRL??..GOT THAT EVERYONE FOR FUTURE INFORMATION? VERY IMPORTANT...IT HAS 3 SIMPLE SCENARIOS...TEST THAT 71 TOP, BREAK IT, OR MAKE A LOWER TOP AND ROLL OVER AND DOWN...I LIKE THE 3RD ONE<G>..YOU?
XAU---IT REVERSED UP 3 BOXES ON THE 62 PRINT...BUT THIS INDEX IS STILL A SHORT ALL RALLY INDEX..AS FOR THE FUTURES THE GC02Q? IT GAVE A SHORT TERM BUY SIGNAL AT 307, AND MISSED MY DOWNSIDE TARGET BY 3 TICS...
HUI---THIS GOLDBUG INDEX LOOKS VERY INTERESTING TO ME...JUST BROKE A DOUBLE TOP AT 114...HAS HARD O/H R AT 120, HOWEVER THE INTERNALS ARE WEAK HERE AS THE RS HAS REVERSED DOWN 3 BOXES AND IF IT BREAKS THAT DOUBLE BOTTOM AT BELOW 12 THIS INDEX WILL CRASH AND BURN, & SO WILL ALL THAT GLITTERS HAHAHAHAHAHHAAA
DX02U--BROKE A DB AT 106.60 AFTER BREAKING 2 DT...IT'S WORKING SIDEWAYS HERE...WATCHING...
OK THATS DONE..LET'S MOVE ON TO OUR STOCKS...AND SOME FUN ONES TOO<G>
MEDI---RALLIES RIGHT UP TO THE BRL LINE FOR THE FIRST TIME...OFF THE BOTTOM..27 IS THE 3BXRVDN..BUT IT COULD GO TO 25 TOO THIS WEEK...RS VS THE SPX HAS JUST REVERSED UP..THAT'S SOLID INFO FOLKS..I PLAYED THIS PENNANT BREAKOUT ON THE DAILY AND MADE 2 POINTS IN 1 1/2 DAYS..I LOVE THESE KIND OF CHART PATTERNS...THAT'S WHY IT PAYS TO UNDERSTAND BOTH P&F AND CANDLESTICKS...28.25 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG (BTL)...26.50 THE SHORT SALE TRIGGER (SST)..
MSFT---DID A BACKSIDE BOUNCE ON THE DAILY INTO THE 20 EMA AND SOLD OFF...THIS STOCK WAS A SHORT ALL RALLY TYPE STOCK AS MENTIONED IN OTHER NEWSLETTERS...JUST MOVING A BIT SIDEWAYS RIGHT HERE...45.50 THE BTL...43.50 THE SST...
AMGN---GAVE A NICE BUY SIGNAL ON GREAT EARNINGS, BUT IT RAN RIGHT UP AND INTO THE BRL LINE..IT'S PULLING BACK HERE..I'M STALKING IT...FOR A LONG SIDE POSITION TRADE...IT HAS DYNAMIC 1ST GAP SUPPORT AT 40 WHERE BOTH THE 20 & 40 EMAS ARE..AND THEN 2ND GAP AT 37..37 WOULD BE AWESOME TO BUY IT THERE...44.75 THE BTL...42.50 THE SST...
IDPH---WHAT A TRADER HUH GUYS AND GALS<G>...THIS IS A GREAT P& F CHART...GIVEN SEVERAL BUY SIGNALS NOW AND BROKE THRU THAT DREADED BRL LINE TOO..PULLED BACK 3 BOXES HERE..HAS SUPPORT AT 39/40 AREA...42.25 BTL...40.75 THE SST..
MYGN--SUPER NICE LOOKING ROUNDED BOTTOM CHART PATTERN HERE ON THIS BIO TECH...GIVEN 2 SOLID BUY SIGNALS HAS GREAT SUPPORT AT 17 1/.2...BROKE THRU THE BRL LINE AND HAS PULLED BACK NICELY HERE..THE RS VS IT'S PEER GROUP HAS REVERSED UP HERE TOO...22.20 THE BTL...20.35 THE SST...
QLGC---STILL FALLING UNDER THE 20 EMA ON THE CANDLE CHART AS WELL AS THE BRL LINE ON P&F TOO..SO IT'S A SHORT...BUT WE TRADE IT EITHER WAY DURING THE DAY AS A SCALP PLAY...38.25 THE BTL...36.75 THE SST...
CEPH---HAS EARNINGS ON THE 6TH..WATCH IT...COMPLETED A BULLISH CATAPULT FORMATION AS A BOTTOM FISH TYPE PLAY..THIS BIO "MIGHT" HAVE SOME LEGS AFTER WE PULLBACK...40-42 IS THE S AREA...43.60 THE SST...45.40 THE BTL...CAREFUL AHEAD OF EPS...
EBAY--THIS CHART CONTINUES TO LOOK MORE AND MORE BEARISH TO ME...53.90 THE SST...55.75 THE BTL...
EXPE---ONE WILD STOCK TO TRADE..WHEW!!!...NOT FOR THE FAINT OF HEART<G>..CURRENT TREND IS DOWN BIG..LOWER AND LOWER..I THINK PCLN NEWS KILLED THIS SECTOR...41.90 THE SST..ANY BREAK OF 41 STAY SHORT ALL THE WAY...43.90 THE BTL...TIGHT STOPS..
QCOM---READY TO CRASH AND BURN HERE...IT'S GOING TO HAPPEN...24.60 THE SST, WITH ANY BREAK OF 24 YOU STAY SHORT ALL THE WAY..ME TOO<G>...SET ALERTS HERE...IT'S A POSITION TYPE SHORT...26.50 THE BTL...YOU TAKE IT<VBG>...
BRCD---ON THE BRINK OF DISASTER TOO...NEAR A SPREAD QUAD BOTTOM BREAK...15.90 THE VERY GOOD SST...17.15 THE BTL...
KLAC..THE FINAL STOCK THIS EVENING...THE SELL SIGNALS HAVE BEEN NOTHING SHORT OF AWESOME...COURSE WE DO SCALP IT LONG TOO<VBG>...WEAK STOCK WEAKER SECTOR..ABOUT TO BREAKDOWN AGAIN...36 A GOOD SST...TAKE IT...JUST LIKE 39 WAS LAST WEEK..RIGHT???...38 THE BTL....
GE----JUST DID A DCB HERE AFTER A BIG TIME HUMPTY DUMPTY FALL...PULLING BACK BUT LOOKING BETTER..IF THE BP NYSE REVERSES UP HERE I'LL OWN GE HEAVILY..30.25 THE BTL...28.90 THE SST..
IBM---FROM LATE JUNE THRU EARLY AUGUST THIS STOCK IS TRYING TO BOTTOM HERE..MOVING SIDEWAYS BETWEEN 73 AT THE TOP AND 66 AT THE BOTTOM...EXCELLENT SAFE TRADER...PLEASE TRY IT...68.40 THE BTL...67 THE SST...
INVN---"HEADSUP" HERE EVERYONE...THIS STOCK HAS A SOLID LOOKING CHART PATTERN ON BOTH CANDLES AND P&F..I THINK IT'S GOING HIGHER...VERY NICE DAILY CANDLE CHART WITH A CUP WITH HANDLE FORMING...AND AHEAD OF 9-11 I THINK THIS STOCK AND SOME OTHERS IN THIS SECTOR WILL RUN...IT'S MADE 4 CONSECUTIVE HIGHER LOWS...27.15 THE BTL...ANY BREAK OF 29 YOU STAY LONG ALL THE WAY...I WILL FOR SURE...25.85 THE SST...
GM----THIS AUTO STOCK LOOKS TERRIBLE...AREN'T THEY SELLING ANY MORE CADILLAC'S??? HEHEHEHEHEEE...CASCADING LOWER AND LOWER HERE...42.50 THE SST...ANY BREAK OF 39 THIS STOCK IS DEAD POTATOES...43.90 THE BTL...TIGHT STOPS...
NEM---FOR YOU GOLD BUGS<G>...THIS STOCK HAS HELD WELL WHEN THE INDEXS AND FUTURES HAVE FALLEN RECENTLY, IT HAS EXCELLENT RS HERE TOO...IT'S HELD THE BSL LINE EACH TIME IT TOUCHED IT TOO BOOT...HOWEVER IT'S RUN UP AND INTO O/H 20 EMA DAILY HERE..SO BE CAREFUL YOU LONGS...26.25 THE BTL...24.50 THE SST...
CSCO---DISGUSTING CHART OF A FAVORITE BIG CAP TECHIE GONE SOUR...IN A PROTRACTED DOWNTREND FOR A LONG LONG TIME...11.25 THE SST...ANY BREAK OF 11 IT'S EVEN WORSE...12.60 THE BTL..WAIT FOR IT..
MO---THIS STALWART OF EARLIER THIS YEAR LOOKS WEAK TO ME...SHORT TERM..IT DT AT 47 AND LOOKS LIKE IT'S GOING TO MOVE DOWN NOW...44.50 THE SST...46.25 THE BTL...
CCMP---BROKE UP AND OUT OF A DESCENDING WEDGE...AND IS NOW BACK TESTING THAT UPPER LINE...38.50 THE SST...39.25 THE BTL...
OK EVERYONE THATS IT FOR THIS EVENING..PLEASE THINK THINK THINK AND FOCUS FOCUS FOCUS...WE HAVE IMPORTANT EVENTS AHEAD OF US..CYCLES, FOMC, CEO'S ETC...BE READY FOR ANYTHING...
HAVE A GREAT TRADING WEEK,,,
WARMEST REGARDS TO YOU ALL
JERRY
Jerry Olson
MasterClassTraders.com
jerry@masterclasstraders.com
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