If you look at the European great powers for the last three hundred years, there is a great powers power an average of every fifty years. That's how long it takes the power arrangements of the previous war to break down. Thus,
Early 18th century, War of the Spanish Succession
Mid 18th century, The Seven Years War
Early 19th century, Napoleonic Wars
Mid 19th century, Franco-Prussian War
Early 20th century, WWI
Mid 20th century, WWII this war happened off schedule, at the earliest possible moment due to Hitler's desires
The arrangements at the end of WWII spawned the Cold War, which broke down in 1991. There hasn't really been a fixed arrangement since then. But who to fight with? Europe no longer has great powers, Russia is in bad shape, China isn't ready (the next great powers war will probably have China in it). Well, the Islamists provided an answer. If any part of the globe needs a new arrangement, it's the Mideast. |
