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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Broken_Clock who wrote (15104)	8/9/2002 12:18:22 PM
From: Bob Rudd	of 78682

Papaya: <<Doesn't it look as though there is enough cash to almost pay off the debt?>> Pretty much. According to the Q they have 15mm net cash if you include escrowed cash, 81mm net debt if you exclude the escrowed cash. Recent Merrill report states they have no net debt as of May, the date of the Q. <<projected earnings of $2+/- next year>>That's a worse case scenario. After the bad news, they are currently expected to earn 2.76 in 03. Even if more bad credit Utilities cancel plants [all of these would be canceled in the worst case $2/share], the driver on plant construction is demand for electricity which is not exactly discretionary...construction may be delayed, but it will be done. <<Covered calls? >> I really don't do options, but if I did, I'd be disinclined to limit the upside...an unpredictable weather twist, a few brownouts could juice the markets. Please note though that my track record on energy investing has generally sucked.

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