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Strategies & Market Trends : Guidance and Visibility

AAPL 259.35

+0.1%

Jan 9 9:30 AM EST

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To: DebtBomb who wrote (66398)	8/9/2002 1:16:47 PM
From: SusieQ1065	Read Replies (3) of 208838

from Jim Brown last night re: the IMF loan Helping power the markets today was news that the IMF had changed its mind and would loan $30 billion to Brazil and boost a loan to Uruguay. This took the heat off US banks in the short term and made that asset allocation play in Germany on Tuesday very profitable. It also represented a change in stance for the US government. Since the IMF loans are funded by major banks all over the world you wonder if Deutsche Bank knew it was in progress and had something to do with that massive program buy in Germany. Conspiracy theorists have been heard speculating that Alan Greenspan blessed it as a way to support the US markets without having to cut rates. Analysts think major US banks have about $30 billion in exposure to Brazil already and had the country gone under would have had serious implications for the US. According to European news sources the Fed made a decision on July 23-24th that "any and all measures" would be taken to keep the US stock markets from melting down before November elections. (That is exactly when bids began appearing under the market.) With insolvency rumors swirling around JPM and Citigroup the Fed decided to do whatever it took to protect the markets. The IMF move in Brazil is seen as one of those steps. With Brazil's debt at $500 billion almost every analyst claims there is no hope to avoid a default and the loan was only a Band-Aid. What you did not hear in most media was that they would only get $6 billion this year and the balance was tied to some very unpopular austerity measures by the new government that have never been agreed to in the past. Say "market and political Band-Aid" three times fast.

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