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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch
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To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (4281)8/9/2002 5:21:28 PM
From: pogbull  Read Replies (2) of 89467
 
{{ am beginning to believe that the USGovt Admin actions will very likely avoid an outright recession
we may get several brief bouts with recession
but a long and very deep one is not so likely
maybe I am expecting too much here, optimistically

BUT THE PRICE WILL BE SOME SERIOUS POCKETS OF INFLATION

a recession would cascade into a depression very easily
I think they will accelerate the MZM money supply, increase TaxRebates, increase all manner of public assistance via extended unemployment benefits, SBA loans, increase liquidity like we have never seen...
all to forestall a recession

the end result will be mindboggling price inflation in a couple years, after the deflationary forces wind down, after the bankruptcies clear the deck
while the USdollar gets trashed, which brings with it some extreme distortions}}

While you may be correct, I'm not so sure about this Jim.
This scenario would imply that real estate prices could go much higher in the next two years (higher end properties already slowing down).

I expect them to fight with all they have, if they win your scenario is likely correct. If this occurs there will be a massive price to pay at a later date.

I'm of the mind set to just take our lumps now and get it over with. But with the election coming this fall and Greenspam nearing retirement they will print all they possibly can.

I really don't like the economic path we are going down.
Mortgaging our future to live like pigs today.
Time will tell.
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