Maurice,
This is for you: news.bbc.co.uk . The mission could not be more aptly named. Tilting at imaginary windmills is much cheaper than playing billiards in space. "Balls to Space!" is another title that comes to my mind.
By the way, Britain has her own meteor crater, news.bbc.co.uk . It might not be as spectacular as the one in Arizona, and it is under water, but it is much, much older. So there!
Hmm, I just checked to see when the Arizona crater was made. A mere 50 0000 years ago. Maybe the risk is more substantial than I thought. Yes, I know the Siberian one was 1908. Any more recent ones? I'd say it might be worth doing something about if the there were a 1/100 chance of a Siberian size any time in the next twenty years, or a 1/100 000 chance of the Yucatan style impact. The Yucatan impact is credited by many to be what marks the division between the Cretacious and the Tertiary periods; great ecological disruption, including the decline of dinosaurs and rise of mammals. It was 65 million years ago. I doubt that there's much chance of a similar (K/T) event ending my life or yours, or any of your progeny's while those progeny are still speaking a language you could understand.
What probabilities would you accept warrant spending, say, 500- 1 000 million to study the feasibility of asteroid defence? I know you think such a defence is warranted. Any guesses as to the cost, and are you more worried about "small, local difficulties" like the 1908 Siberian or the truely globally catastrophic Yucatan style event? Surely little should be spent until we have various estimates of the probabilities? That wouldn't delay things; I'm sure the data are already available for some ad hoc estimates, and they're probably sitting around in some offices already.
Ashley
PS. Friday musings. I would wish you a good weekend, but suppose the week loses some texture when you've quit formal work. |
