<font color=red>*** Game Over for VW-40 ***
Okay, let's face, it. King Hagfish invented CDMA back in 1880, although they said it couldn't work, they would deny it to their customers and if they did produce it, they wouldn't owe QUALCOMM any royalties because it was their technology.
What a difference a century makes.
Now, VW-40 is further away still and let's face it, it is never going to be developed. It's Game Over for the GSM Guild.
As Irwin Jacobs said a couple of years ago [maybe 3 now] his greatest worry was that VW-40 would be delayed. That's because QUALCOMM gets royalties for W-CDMA if it actually becomes real instead of VapourWear.
Incidentally, Vodafone, a main proponent of VW-40, has gone literally for VapourWear in Australia - offering to pay a couple of streakers to wear a Vodafone logo and prance around naked during a big footy match between Australia and New Zealand. uk.news.yahoo.com That's taking VapourWear to extremes. Today, there was a full-page advertisement from Vodafone apologizing for such a stupid idea [it was the boss of Vodafone Australasia who took the call and agreed to the nudity].
Sweden's VW-40 networks are delayed for years: news.bbc.co.uk Sweden is the home of Naked Emperor Hagfish, with nothing but vapour-wear for modesty. Their stock price graph being a great example of the telecosmic mania and backing of wrong horses - siliconinvestor.com QUALCOMM could almost buy them with cash on hand!
- There's no viable W-CDMA.
- When there is, technologically, it'll be years from now.
- The royalty mess is unresolved and will be higher than cdma2000 [because QUALCOMM gets the same on both and there are no other royalties payable for cdma2000]
- GSM1x can be built in existing 800MHz spectrum, saving huge amounts of infrastructure cost compared with 2GHz spectrum which requires lots more equipment for the same coverage. That's the way to get cdma2000 in GSM networks.
- No new spectrum is needed, saving spectrum purchase, if existing networks are converted.
- Handsets are in profusion for cdma2000, getting better and cheaper daily.
- cdma2000 is proven in Japan, Korea, USA, New Zealand, elsewhere during 2002. People love what it can do.
- W-CDMA can't do anything for subscribers that cdma2000 and future implementations 1xEVDO and 1xEVDV can't do.
- W-CDMA will cost more than cdma2000 for equipment and handsets.
- To work effectively, it seems that VW-40 will have to become synchronized and otherwise look a lot more like cdma2000 than the original ideas.
- Samsung and co can provide low cost GSM 1x infrastructure; it's a competitive, low margin market in the cdma2000 world, so service providers will benefit [and subscribers].
- D'oh!CoMo's FOMA is struggling and as the lead challenger for the VW-40 crowd is NOT doing very well at all, despite a long lead on KDDI, which is doing extremely well with Au's cdma2000. Why on earth would anyone want to duplicate D'oh!CoMo's failure? They are bailing out fast! Retreating in pandemonium.
- GPRS is struggling but essentially useless for wireless cyberspace services, being wasteful of spectrum, too expensive, too slow, inadequate gadgets with not enough variety.
- The Bleeding EDGE has bled to death, never to be born.
- The now-trendy idea that nobody needs fast cyberspace anyway, [which begs the question of why VW-40 was conceived in the first place], is false. That's sour grapes syndrome. People love cyberspace and they want it fast and cheap, wherever they are, and mobile at that.
- VW-40 might have been the biggest deceit ever [making Enron, Worldcom and Global Crossing look like minor glitches on the road to Telecosmic Nirvana]. D'oh!CoMo should perhaps ditch their W-CDMA and sign up for cdma2000 while they've got a chance. D'oh!CoMo failed in their attempt to buy the market to switch it to VW-40. Now what?
Sprint, Verizon and other cdma2000 merchants are going to wipe the TDMA, GSM and other networks in the USA. Waiting until 2005 to get a real W-CDMA going is going to mean 3 years of leadership to cdma2000 suppliers. That's a fatal delay, especially since there'll be no special merit to W-CDMA compared with cdma2000 when they do finally get it going.
PANIC PEOPLE!! PANIC!!! FIRE .... RIGHT HERE IN THE CROWDED CELLPHONE WORLD.... LAST ONE OUT OF VAPOURWEAR DOESN'T GET OUT....
Mqurice
PS: Vapour-Ware is software promised with a view to stopping competitors developing it and to keep customers on the hook, waiting, waiting, waiting.
VapourWear is what naked Emperors wear when cunning tailors promise to make them beautiful raiment from gold and silver thread which only the intelligent can see - innocent children point out that the Emperor isn't wearing any clothes and is naked! Suddenly, all the people stop pretending and yes indeed, the Emperor is naked. There is no beautiful W-CDMA - it's only VapourWear, like that on Vodafone's men in Oz. |
