Hello ACF Mike,
<<It's hard for you to smell what's really going on here in the US from your vantage point on Freedom Rock ... still not easy to get a table at a good restaurant on a Friday night>>
Too many of my American pals are just starting to sound alarmed, even as my relatives report dense-packed 3.5-star restaurants with USD 240 tab for 3 folks (w/ one glass of wine) - approaching HK prices, and also reporting record breaking home transactions.
I put it all down to home equity and residual savings spending, because the income statement do not justify same.
<<I have several customers who are large boat manufacturers - 1,000+ boats/year each - and they are all having a great year>>
Be careful. My father-in-law, previously in shipping and now in shipping navigation and safety equipment trading, dealing in US, UK and South African gear, reports the same from his US suppliers, but at lower and lower margins, and the beginning of internal company talks about factory shutdowns.
Once you get away from telecomm and high tech, the economy is solid - people are spending money. This is, so far, but the pool of funding is getting more poisoned, and lower in liquid level.
<<All anecdotal>> I am a big believer in anecdotes.
<<we are now 2 and a half years into this thing and the big melt (apart from the Nasdaq) just ain't happening>>
What would a typical Japanese investor say?
"We are 12 years into this thing, and the big melt (apart from the Nikkei) just ain't happening"
Chugs, Jay
P.S. I posted many times, and here it is again, 'Anticipation is a survival trait'. |
