Spekulatius, I'll add your pick of AZ to my watch list, and begin some consideration of it.
I show that AZ is a distant #3 (by market cap) in the prop. casualty insurance sector, after AIG and Berkshire. I have not done well with these larger players. Never owned Berkshire (sigh), and I wasn't quick enough to add to my most tiny position in AIG when it was more than 10 points lower during those "bad days" of July 21-24.
Many of the stocks in this sector have been discussed here before, and investors who bought at those times subsequently had opportunities to sell profitably. Some examples would be Allstate (#4 in market cap) when its stock swooned a couple of years ago; MBI and ABK which used to be a subject of an occasional discussion between Jim Clarke and me; and perhaps St. Paul, Markel, Radian, or Renaissance Re that people mentioned here a while ago. And just in the past month, Dale Baker has suggested IPCR as a buy.
There've been at least a couple of losers too: ESREF (if one still holds it, as I do), FFH.to maybe. (This latter one I summarize by saying it looked and still looks good on the surface, but some people here or on Buffetology thread may have astutely warned away investors by suggesting there were trust issues with management.) I myself have mentioned a couple on this thread that eventually went bankrupt. (I will assuage my conscious by assuming that nobody paid too much attention to my suggestions then as now.)
Perhaps we have here an example of value investors approaching stocks from different perspectives? I sometimes like to screen for insurance stocks that look to me like bargain prices. I assume you bring much more of an internationalist's perspective. For example, when the subject was pharmaceuticals, you reminded the thread of the opportunities in some Swiss stocks (PHA under 40 for example).
Anyway, thanks for mentioning AZ. It can't compare to BRK or AIG, but then again, it is large and substantial - a respected company that doesn't have the high p/e or higher p/sales or higher price/stated book that #1 or #2 have.
jmo,
Paul Senior |
