You see, what did I say?
Israel tells U.S. it will respond to Iraqi strike
By Aluf Benn and Amos Harel
Israel has notified the U.S. it would respond to any Iraqi attack, even if there are no casualties, Ha'aretz has learned. Senior Israeli officials have explained to their American counterparts it is important to Israel to maintain its deterrence, and that it would not practice the same kind of restraint it demonstrated in the Gulf War in 1991.
The Americans empathized with the Israeli position, but said that if there are no casualties, Israel should make do with a symbolic response.
Israel and the U.S. have not yet held systematic consultations in preparation for a possible American attack on Iraq, that would be designed to change the regime there. However, the question of Israel's intervention in the war has been discussed in various meetings, and Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has told U.S. President George W. Bush that if Israel is attacked, it will respond.
According to senior Israeli sources, the U.S. would prefer for Israel to stay out, and will therefore do its utmost to keep Iraq from attacking Israel.
In 1991, the U.S. led a coalition that included several Arab countries, like Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Syria. The Americans believed that if Israel responds to an Iraqi attack, the coalition would fall apart. This time America does not have Arab and European support from the outset, but Washington is still concerned that even the appearances of collaboration with Israel would badly affect its relations with Arab allies like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
Israel's defense establishment still has no clear data about the American plans. The working assumption is that the U.S. will not attack Iraq before the end of the year. The IDF is now perfecting the mechanisms that will be used if and when the war starts - early warning, home front command (distribution of gas masks and vaccines) and aerial defense (including the Arrow antitactical ballistic missile and the air force).
The Air Force has already started deploying Arrow missile batteries near Hadera for a two-week drill. Military sources maintain that the timing of the current drill is not directly related to the expected American attack in Iraq. Sources in the Air Force told Ha'aretz that this deployment was planned a long time ago, and is designed to get the forces accustomed with the equipment and the terrain so that in case of emergency, everything would go smoothly.
In the last two years, the residents of the region waged a campaign against the IDF and the defense establishment, arguing that a permanent deployment of the batteries there would expose them to dangerous radiation. The parties eventually agreed that the IDF would only deploy there in an emergency.
Senior sources in the defense establishment said yesterday they were expecting a 72-hour warning before the American attack, although Israel has asked the U.S. to warn it a week ahead of time.
"We do not have an automatic response for every given scenario, but the very statement that Israel will respond this time is important for deterrence," the sources said. If America allows Israel to respond, tight coordination will be required. In 1991, the Americans refused to give Israel the codes that would have enabled the Israeli air force to fly to and operate in Iraq without crashing into American aircraft.
Outgoing chief of the Central Command, Maj. Gen. Yitzhak Eitan, told Channel One TV this weekend that an American attack on Iraq would weaken Palestinian motivation to clash with Israel. The Palestinians depend to a great extent on Iraqi support, and any injury to Iraq would therefore cut into Palestinian resources as well.
Operation Defensive Shield and the other IDF operations in the territories are causing "an earthquake" in the Palestinian Authority, Eitan said. "It is all beneath the surface. There is an internal debate in the territories, and most participants are still not ready to express their opinions in public, but the majority understands that they have lost the campaign [against Israel]."
Maj. Gen. Moshe Kaplinski (Kaplan) replaced Eitan on Thursday as chief of the Central Command. "You were chosen because this is the main command. This appointment shows how much we all believe in you," Chief of Staff Moshe Ya'alon said at the ceremony.
Kaplinski was Sharon's military secretary in the last year, and is considered one of the candidates to become the next chief of staff.
Eitan will use the next few months for rest and studies. He may then be appointed head of the Plans and Policy Directorate.
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