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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's
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To: Jeff who wrote (5044)8/10/2002 11:54:49 PM
From: exp  Read Replies (1) of 30712
 
Jeff, if NAZ hits 1400 by Oct then drop to 700 will mean a

50% drop ... similarly, if SPX hits 950-1000 then drop to

600 will be a 40% drop ... once NAZ drops below 1000 they

will probably stop looking for a bottom ... same if SPX

drops below 700 ... these (almost inevitable) market drops

guarantee a recession, stagflation, gold panic buying ...

you name it ... i expect 10 year bond flashing under 4%

easy in that case ... maybe even 3.5% .... as the largest

US banks will be severely dented by Brazil collapse (100%

inevitable at this point) and by extension the rest of

Latin America's including Mexico...US stagflation/recession

will keep Japan down ... Nikkei going under 9000 ... this

will dent Southeast Asia in a major way ... Iraq war will

spike oil to $40-50 ... i could go on ... thing is this

scenario is all but inevitable at this point ... talk about

runnning out of bullets with US debt, deficit, Brazil,

Argentina etc. total collapse, Japan depression continuing,

Asia following Japan ... i wish i could be more optimistic

but frankly it's truly a perfect global financial storm

with no way out as al most everyone is in trouble

simultaneously

... that said i'll trade as usual long and short in a swing

fashion ...i do hold longs overnight ... same with

shorts ... as i only look at the charts from a short-term

point of view ... so my views are more of a theoretical

macro perspective and not necessarily affecting my

trades...

and, finally, i do expect the US housing bubble

to burst rather soon prolonging and deepening the

upcoming "consumer" recession

... should be interesting
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