TimbaBear
re ".. I hope your investing decisions are better thought out than this type of rationale."
You're right, they are better thought out and consistently make money. For example I bought Dell Aug 25 calls at 1.50 per contract the Monday before last and sold them for 2.30. Then bought them again at .90 and will sell tomorrow on the jump from the Barrons article as reviewed here by CBS Marketwatch, that sounds amazingly similar to what I posted to you last Sunday.
"Among big-name hardware makers, Dell Computer (DELL: news, chart, profile) gets some of the sector's highest marks for not just being the leading personal computer-maker, but also for the company's willingness to use its direct-sales model to move into other technologies such as storage and servers. Dell also appears headed into the printer market and reportedly is close to launching its own line of personal digital assistants."
While I fully support and subscribe to conservative investment analysis, there is often a missing key ingredient.
One makes or loses money in the market not due to the soundness of the company one invests in but when one buys and when one sells. The less one pays attention or is right on timing the longer one's time horizon must be in order for the underlying strengths of the company to manifest itself in price appreciation. If there's a dividend, that too becomes a factor.
It may be argued that timing a stocks price or timing the market is impossible, it in fact does happen and is the holy grail of funds, hedge funds, derivatives and futures players. Our behavior, both as individuals and as participants in group behavior, move prices up and down.. we are always timing the market by the choices we make.
There is a place for both long term investment and short term opportunity scalping. I practice both.. I bought ALSC for example in early 99 then sold a year later. The logic which makes a Dell unattractive because of its options exposure is irrelevant within price swings and trend probabilities. The logic that makes an AIG attractive is irrelevant within the trading window afforded by an analysts upgrade or downgrade.
So I hope in your deep analysis you don't lose sight of the only reason one should be in the market.. that being to make money.
Money is only made or lost after the investment play is concluded, after the equity or derivative is sold or closed. The rest is just smoke and mirrors we satisfy our egos and insecurities with (all puns intended).
Jim |
