Courtesy of Mark:
Key events in the week ahead
Retailers will be reporting second-quarter results throughout the week. Because they just reported July sales there shouldn't be any big surprises. That doesn't mean that there won't be any surprises, however. Anecdotal evidence suggests that purveyors of big-ticket items may have seen tough times recently. One reason? Consumers put their money toward new cars (those generous financing terms from auto companies) rather than washing machines.
The big kahuna of retailers, Wal-Mart (WMT: Research, Estimates), reports earnings Tuesday morning. Since it accounts for nearly 10 percent of non-auto retail sales, Wal-Mart's outlook is key.
Tuesday the Census Bureau releases its retail sales report for July. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com expect sales overall hopped 1.2 percent higher, but most of that is about car sales. Exclude autos, and economists think sales ticked up just 0.3 percent.
Tuesday is the Fed meeting. Of the 22 firms that deal directly with the Fed, the economists at only one, Morgan Stanley, think the Fed will cut. Traders, on the other hand, give higher odds to a cut.
Tuesday is also President Bush's economic forum in Waco, Texas.
After the close Tuesday, chip-equipment maker Applied Materials (AMAT: Research, Estimates) reports earnings. Since tech went south, semiconductor makers have been saddled with huge overcapacity -- they can make far more than customers want -- leaving them with little reason to buy Applied Material's wares.
Wednesday is Aug. 14, when deadline for CEOs and CFOs to certify their firms' results.
Thursday morning the Fed releases industrial production and capacity use numbers for July. If production growth slowed, or worse, contracted, it would be another sign that companies pulled back sharply. Economists think production grew by 0.2 percent in July after tacking on 0.8 percent in June.
Midday Thursday the Philadelphia Fed releases its monthly manufacturing index for its region: Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware. Its the first read of the new month on how manufacturers are doing, but it is often at odds with the overall U.S. manufacturing picture.
Thursday after the close Dell (DELL: Research, Estimates), one of the few tech companies doing well, reports earnings. In the past Dell has reported good news and investors have taken it to mean that tech in general has turned the corner. So far that hasn't been true.
Friday morning the July Consumer Price Index comes out. Economists think the key read on inflation will tick up 0.2 percent. These days the thing that makes investors quake in their boots is deflation. If the number comes in lower than expected, fear-mongers will talk about a crisis of capitalism, replete with bread lines and financial journalists getting sent to re-education camps out in the sticks.
Friday morning the University of Michigan puts out its preliminary read on consumer sentiment for August. Economists expect it to be a bit better than the last sounding, but still dour. |
