Study: Wireless hype way out of whack
By James Pearce
ZDNet Australia
August 9, 2002, 6:12 AM PT
The hype surrounding multi-media messaging services has been attacked by an analyst group, which claims that the worldwide market for those services will far less than current predictions.
The damning report, by World Wireless Forum, condemns industry analysis predicting 10 billion multi-media messages a month world-wide within two years, saying the correct figure will be closer to 200 million a month by 2004.
The report claims that 88 percent of the current market for SMS is consumed by youth under 22 years old, and that current handsets are well outside the price-range these consumers can afford. The average MMS-enabled mobile in Australia is over AU$1000. The report claims that it has not seen a working business model for MMS in the 16 countries it surveyed, which included Australia.
Optus, however, defended its decision to enter the MMS market despite the most recent predictions. “We don’t launch services without looking at our business model, we’re prudent, careful, we’ve done our research,” a spokesperson for the telecoms carrier said. “We have provided a public forecast that 25 percent of Optus revenue will come from data-related services by 2005, and we’re on track for that, it’s currently at nine percent.”
Despite being “very excited” by MMS, Optus is taking a long-term view, according to the spokesperson. “Optus knows that this will be a relatively slow take-up,” she said.
“It’s not a step that consumers will take immediately,” she said, pointing out that Optus has only two MMS handsets on the market, and more are needed for its success. “As you see more handsets become available at a range of prices uptake will increase,” the spokesperson said.
One of the ways Optus is hoping to drive uptake is by enabling MMS to be sent to any mobile or e-mail address. If the mobile is not MMS-enabled, the person receives an SMS directing them to a Web site where they can view the original message.
A spokesperson for Sony Ericsson said its business model was to launch MMS capable handsets so they're in the picture when MMS takes off. Picture messaging has started to take off, and MMS is a natural progression of that, according to the spokesperson, who added that a lower-end MMS phone is due on the market soon.
Vodafone and Telstra were contacted in regards to the report, but were unable to offer comment at the time of publication. |
