Aug. 12 — Public support for attacking Iraq declines in the absence of allied support and falls even lower if it would mean a high-casualty ground war — significant challenges as the Bush administration seeks to forge consensus on action against Baghdad.
In an ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll, fewer than half of Americans say the Bush administration has a clear policy on Iraq, and many look to Congress to vet any plans for war. Indeed the public divides about evenly on whether Bush, or Congress, should have the final say.
While 69 percent do favor U.S. military action to force Saddam Hussein from power, that falls to 54 percent if U.S. allies oppose it. And while 57 percent support a U.S. invasion of Iraq with ground troops, that drops to 40 percent if it means heavy U.S. casualties.
The prospect of casualties is not always so daunting: Last fall two-thirds of Americans expressed a willingness to sustain high casualties in U.S. military action against groups or nations responsible for the Sept. 11 attacks. The critical factor is a sense of threat, and on this the administration is halfway there: Seventy-nine percent of Americans do see Iraq as a threat. But clearly, fewer see it as a big enough threat to justify a high-casualty invasion.
Clear Policy?
For Bush, winning support will require clarifying his views. After weeks of heightened debate on the subject, the public divides evenly on whether or not he has a clear policy on Iraq: Forty-five percent say he does, but 42 percent think not. (In February 1998, amid rising tension over U.N. weapons inspections, 55 percent said Bill Clinton's policy on Iraq was clear.)
Today 75 percent of Americans say Bush should get authorization from Congress before going to war with Iraq. Probably of greater concern to the administration is the public's view on who should have the final decision: Forty-eight percent say it should be Bush, but about as many, 44 percent, say it should be Congress.
Threat Support
These results underscore the fundamental importance of two factors in public support for military action — a clear policy and a demonstrated threat. Support for action against Iraq soars among those who see it as a threat, and among those who think Bush's policy is clear. It dives among those who are doubtful on these two scores.
Attacking Iraq to oust Saddam is favored by 76 percent of those who see him as a threat, compared to just 49 percent of those who don't. And it's favored by 84 percent of those who think Bush has a clear policy, compared to 59 percent of those who think not.
Similarly, support for a ground war falls from 62 percent of those who see Iraq as a threat to 44 percent of those who don't. And it declines even more steeply from 73 percent of those who think Bush's policy is clear to 43 percent of those who think not.
Also, people who think Bush has a clear policy are far more apt to say he — rather than Congress — should have the final decision on whether to attack.
Women Less Hawkish Than Men
There are divisions among some groups; women are less apt to favor attacking Iraq (though 63 percent still do so), and substantially less apt to favor invading it with ground troops (49 percent, compared to 65 percent of men). Older Americans, age 65 and up, are also less supportive of taking military action.
Political partisanship is strongest in views of whether Bush's policy is clear: Sixty-six percent of Republicans say it is, but this dives to 36 percent of independents and Democrats alike. Accordingly, 55 percent of Democrats, and 48 percent of independents, say Congress should have the final word. Just 28 percent of Republicans agree. |
