"I don't know whether intel or amat or both are moving processes forward but it would seem to me that a lot of good ideas in the lab need a lot of real world working out before they are really useful. My intuition says it must be a combination of the two."
I agree 100% and I am long Intel since 1993. It is one of the few I didn't take profits in and sure wished I had... so I'd feel comfortable buying back some now...
I should have quoted the article:
"In the article, today, on INTC's move to a .09u process, the CEO of Broadcom is quoted as saying that INTC is not moving the technology ahead, AMAT is. AMAT, not INTC, and not KLIC!"
Broadcom is a competitor and they are trying to not have their shareholders bolt to Intel. I think that whenever we do get another upturn, those using fabs will have to give up significan margins to get capacity in the advanced processes. UMC, TSMC, et. al. will order boat loads of equipment from AMAT et. al. to try to get more capacity but Intel will be producing all this time and making buckets of money.
I've seen this sort of "business cycle" where companies like HP or IBM out source nearly everything in lean times then bring it all back when demand returns... just like they cycle flat management structures with many layers of management.. back and forth... Now we are in the "fabless model" time. Can you imagine GM and Ford outsourcing to Korea? Just do the design and let someone else build the cars? Chips, as they mature, could go the same route as the autos.... Heck, Japan and Germany now build their cars here... |
