intriguing to watch Greenspun trapped like an animal
if he lowers rates too soon after declaring just last month that the US economic recovery was well underway, then he looks stupid and out of control (which he is, despite his "deity")
today he did not defend the US Economy
he defended the integrity, credibility, and reputation the FedReserve
if he lowers rates, he risks the dollar decline resuming
if he doesnt lower rates, he risks the economy not responding, which would hurt profits and stocks, which would lead to the dollar decline resuming
if he switches policy too fast, then his amateurish incompetence is revealed, and the dollar decline resumes
if the economy fails to recover, then federal deficits rise without bound, and the dollar decline resumes
if the economy holds course with little recovery, and the cheaper dollar doesnt encourage more exports and less imports, then the trade gap remains unacceptably high, and the dollar decline resumes
if USGovt statistics continue to show amateurish incompetence in their distorted optimism, then trust in our financial leadership will erode further, and the dollar decline resumes
my expectation is THE DOLLAR DECLINE RESUMES
if foreigners figure out our unprecedented vulnerability and weakness, they will not only sell USstocks but USTBonds also, which will raise our rates, and lead to an acceleration of dollar decline
(this probably wont happen until the deflation winds down)
/ jim |
