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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT)
AMAT 322.34+1.1%Jan 23 9:30 AM EST
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To: Gottfried who wrote (2355)8/13/2002 7:44:43 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom  Read Replies (1) of 25522
 
Interesting comparing the 2 periods of the present versus the 1998 time frame.

In accordance with your chart, the reported backlog in October 1998 was 917 million - that was the fifth reporting period in a row that the backlog had gone down. Then the price started up in a big way.

Now the backlog has gone up for 2 reporting periods to the latest number of 3,300 million, 3.6 times what it was in 1998 and the price is still continuing to go downward.

I thought Jim Morgan made a good point about "the new technology" several times in the conference call. He agreed there was excess "capacity" now, but it wasn't of the right kind. When the upturn comes, the "new technology" will be required to remain competitive. In essence, the "old technology" isn't going to cut it when it comes to supplying the increased demand when it comes. AMAT is ready and waiting to supply that new technology when the demand comes.

Don
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