Don, on the backlog chart also look at SEMI billings past and present. Could it be that part of backlog is scheduled to be shipped at the customer's discretion, later?
From Barron's today
Tuesday, August 13, 2002
Some Managers Warm Up to Ice-Cold Tech
By ERIC C. FLEMING
excerpts
If the economy does improve, Ken Smith, manager of the Munder Future Technology Fund, sees 20% to 30% upside for the downtrodden techs. Companies have been cutting costs for the last two years, so sales will fall quickly to the bottom line once spending resumes, he says.
But even if the economy doesn't snap back right away, "the risk/reward [ratio in technology stocks] is pretty good, and I haven't been able to say that in five years," he says. Smith owns UTStarcom, a wireless provider in China (see Electronic Q&A, "Searching For Signs of Life in Tech," August 13, 2002).
Semiconductors are usually among the first technology sectors to bounce back in an economic recovery.<[snip]
Lehman Brothers analyst Edward White expects semiconductor equipment spending to rise 27% in 2003, as automotive, military and industrial demand picks up.
That's where Seth Glickenhaus, chief investment officer at New York-based Glickenhaus & Co., sees an opportunity.
"The semiconductor cycle is straightening out, and they've eaten through a lot of inventory," says Glickenhaus, who's been nibbling at Altera, among others.[snip]
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