Dear Taylor,
I don't mean to be pedantic, but a lot of what you assume and many others on this thread revolve around the three stages of reality and their opposites: possibility, probability and certainty, impossibility, improbability and uncertainty. Your opinin of the company's statements will depend upon how you categorize their statements within these stages. I believe all that the Huddleston report does is to simply rule out impossibility. It is not impossible that there is oil in thar hills. If Huddleston did the same tests on 72nd street in Manhattan, assuming he does it at 3:00 AM when there are no buses running, he would get a reading that would indicate that it is impossible to find oil under Manhattan. Huddleston does not address certainty or uncertainty in his report, because seismic reports don't do that. What I think the report says is that there is the possibility of oil there and that it may be as much a probability as an improbability to find oil there and that it is a possibility that the amount of oil is more than 460 million barrels, and that the amount could be as much as 1.1 billion barrels. That is all the report says, and you know, that's a lot, because depending upon the reputation of the geologist, that report may convince some big bucks to partner with AIPN. If the report is written in the customary language that big oil bucks understand, then big oil bucks will arrive and make the deal. And for all of that, AIPN investors deserve this respite that is certainly worth more than the paper this report is written on. When we start drilling, then we will move up the stages and crank up the degrees of probability until we start touching certainty. But long before we arrive at that plateau, the market will have discounted this stock like any other big oil company. Happy drilling.
Dan Dwyer |
