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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 316.33

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Dec 10 4:00 PM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (4899)	8/14/2002 7:06:07 AM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (3) of 95546

>> Shouldn't the $3B backlog buffer this? Gottfried, In Fiscal Y02Q1 (Q ending Jan 2002), AMAT's revenue troughed at $1,000 m. Their backlog was $2,730m going into the quarter. AMAT's revenue was approx 37% of what they achieved in fiscal Y00Q3. So obviously they had plenty of manufacturing capacity. Yet a $450m drop in backlog (-14%) was accompanied by a $1,732m drop in revenue (-63%). It seems our understanding of the effect of backlog on revenue is not totally complete (as astronomers say about their understanding of the creation of the universe). I think a useful addition to your excellent charts would be a plot showing backlog, revenue and earnings. I started an excel sheet with the info. I'll post the data here, though I'm not sure how well the columns will show. But if you're interested, I'll e-mail it to you. Unless of course you have it already, and I didn't see it. edit. Also, as backlog increased moderately (Y01Q2 to Y01Q4), revenue decreased 25%. Sarmad Fiscal $ Millions $ Millions $ Millions Quarter Backlog Revenue Earnings Y02Q3 3300 1460 115 Y02Q2 3110 1156 52 Y02Q1 2880 1000 -45 Y01Q4 2730 1264 -82 Y01Q3 2650 1333 28 Y01Q2 3060 1909 226 Y01Q1 3900 2731 558 Y00Q4 4380 2920 663 Y00Q3 3690 2732 603 Y00Q2 3180 Y00Q1 2460 Y99Q4 1680 Y99Q3 1340 Y99Q2 Y99Q1

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