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Non-Tech : Money Supply & The Federal Reserve

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To: glenn_a who wrote (297)8/14/2002 2:07:26 PM
From: Ahda  Read Replies (1) of 1379
 
1 - Concern for a significant decline in the US$.
2 - A U.S. consumer credit bubble that has yet to pop.


The US dollar decline is mostly internal as it takes too many dollars to create value for the dollar. Credit has aided this because the debt service business I believe has become the prime business.

3 - Poor outlook for the labor markets given on-going corporate layoffs.

This has more to do with the cost of labor and expansion than it has to do with layoffs so, in a way you are right but it is mostly the wage market here has outpriced itself when compared to the world labor market. Our wages are inflated in other words.

- Continuing concern for lack of integrity in U.S. financial accounting practices.

The hidden costs of doing business here I feel can basically be attributed to legal costs that inturn created to much pressure for innovation on modifying rules in order to meet profit expectation. On a world base we have more legal costs than I believe any corporation working out of any other nation has.

5 - Doesn't speak directly to corporate earnings, but continual high valuations in the equity markets makes the U.S. equity markets very poor places to find good value in equity investments IMO.

True our costs are extremely high. We have been facing this for many years and technology has lessened the burden but the increase costs associated with the servicing of money have increased it. Surplus dollars have ended up within the financial industry and have not moved into our economy to increase production capability and help us become more competitive on a world product base. The product we have done the most exporting in seems to be our dollar.

So yes, you are right in the U.S. equity market increased value for dollars is difficult to find. Corporate America would be the first to testify as to why external sources must be used to maintain costs.

We are inflated in value as is Japan. Japan is a very small Island with little room to expand so one can be a little bit more forgiving about their inflation which includes their limit by virtue of geography.

Costs are high we maintain low cost by reducing labor costs. As other economies increase in wealth their cost will increase as more members of the community will require more goods and the expansion to sevice more people creates increased costs. This will result in an increase in price of the products we buy from them so our largest foe is inflation.
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