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Technology Stocks : Wind River going up, up, up!
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To: Peter Church who wrote (1530)7/17/1997 11:37:00 PM
From: Allen Benn   of 10309
 
>It would be interesting to compare stock charts and trading volumes of
>companies like IBM, DEC, Microsoft and Cisco Systems with Wind River.

One interesting observation about IBM. As the standard bearer for the first wave, which we say peaked around 1979, notice that IBM stock price continued rising until it peaked in 1987, eight years later. Finally the stock capitulated and went into a long-term breakdown that took ten years to get back to where it was when it peaked.

From what I have read before, this is characteristic of the effect of paradigm shifts on stock prices. At the point when the paradigm has crossed over the peak and is on the way down, the price of the stock is still going up, and continues going up for a surprisingly long time afterward. Barge company stock was going up after the paradigm peaked and railroads started becoming more than just a feeder system, soon to decimate water shipments. Railroad company stock continued going up long after it should have been obvious that trucks on the interstate were decimating the railroad paradigm. The explanation for this phenomenon is pretty straightforward.

>Do you know of a link for long range (1950's to 1990's) historical charts?

I think a reasonable source for long-range historical data is available on CD-ROM from various financial data services.

>Are there any good references on the topic [of the internet improving]?

The most famous is Metcalf from 3com literally eating a copy of his words at a networking conference - true to his word. I have noticed articles from time to time describing the astonishing accomplishment of the internet backbone services constantly improving while traffic escalates exponentially. I suspect someone is in the wings beginning to formulate the equivalent of Moore's Law for network bandwidth increases to explain why this is happening. I would like to believe that deep down it is entirely due to VxWorks being incorporated in so many network devices.

Allen
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